Down And Dirty Super Bowl Analysis

This Sunday I laughed in the face of an overwhelming majority. Out of the eight people in attendance, only I predicted a Saints victory. I am not gloating in my accomplishments, merely mentioning the fact.

The past weeks have been a bit lean on actual football analysis, and while Dave does it far better than myself, I’ll give it the college try. Last night’s Super Bowl ended up being quite the competitive contest, as the Cadre of Creole Clergymen outlasted the Ensemble of Embryonic Equines (the credit isn’t mine on that one). Despite rumors to the contrary, Peyton Manning is human, but while he threw the game-icing interception, the blame should not solely rest on his shoulders. I’ll try to do a quarter-by-quarter analysis.

1st Quarter

As the box score could attest, the Colts pretty much dominated this quarter. Peyton Manning was average at best, completing a goodly majority of his passes and taking what the Saints gave him. It was good, but not great. The 96-yard touchdown drive that he “orchestrated” mainly had Joseph Addai to thank, as he broke runs of 16, 11, and 26 yards. Manning did get the glory by finding a wide open Pierre Garcon in the endzone, but most of success for that play comes from the relative failure of Saints DBs Usama Young and Roman Harper. Interestingly, the Saints did not try too terribly hard to get to Peyton Manning in this quarter, which was surprising to see after listening to Gregg Williams comments earlier in the week. I was expecting 6- and 7-man blitzes aimed at putting pressure on Manning, instead the Saints did exactly the opposite, rushing only 3 linemen most of the time. The would gear up some more exotic blitzes later, but the first quarter seemed to have lulled Manning into a sense of security. The quarter ended with a 10-0 Colts advantage.

2nd Quarter

The second quarter showed what the Saints can do. Pierre Thomas was doing his best (good) Reggie Bush impression, catching passes out of the backfield and running screens. Pierre Thomas, as we have been saying all year, can do something Reggie Bush can’t, and that’s punish tacklers. While the points weren’t there (yet), this quarter showed the Saints moving more towards their famous trickery, running screens and hooks to try to throw the Colts linebackers off-balance. It often worked, and Drew Brees was able to take advantage of Gary Brackett covering Marques Colston one-on-one several times. A few things of note in terms of the Saints play-calling. First, the WR-reverse call was atrocious. The Saints were moving the ball with their passing game, and the Colts Cover-2 defense is specifically designed to stop those slow-developing plays (That being said, good instincts by Antoine Bethea to move up to stop Henderson). Second, why in the hell did Sean Payton call three straight running plays inside the 5-yard line? The Saints hadn’t had a glimmer of hope in the running game all day, and the play calling could have used a rethink.

Interesting side-effect of the Saints offensive success. Their short passes kept the chains moving, and more importantly, kept the clock moving. The Colts only had the ball for three minutes in that entire quarter. Isn’t that what the Saints wanted all along? By the end of the quarter, the Saints had cut the deficit, trailing 10-6.

Halftime

I seem to remember watching a couple of old guys playing a CSI-theme song medley. Did anybody else have a similar experience? (In truth, I love the Who, but they are old. And CBS has a tendency to pimp what works. I’m pretty sure CSI: Topeka will have Pinball Wizard as the theme song.)

3rd Quarter

Sean Payton earns a couple of steel-core cajones, and will never have to buy another beer in his life, as he opened up the half with an on-side kick. On a side note, Dave has jokingly called for an onside kick every time he sees a kickoff. Except he didn’t this time. Por que, Dave, Por que…

The onside was executed beautifully, and much e-ink has been wasted debating the call. One thing is for sure: it was a game-changer. The Saints took the ball,  put it in Pierre Thomas’ hands, and let him run wild. Reggie Bush who? The Colts responded with an efficient drive for a touchdown, maintaining their lead.

Garrett Hartley later added another 40+ yard field goal. Don’t underestimate your kicker, kids. He might just do the Lord’s work in keeping the game close.

4th Quarter

Really, the last quarter can be summed up in two plays: The two point conversion to Lance Moore, and the interception by Tracy Porter.

Sean Payton once again showed his coaching chops when he called for Lance Moore’s conversion to be reviewed. My somewhat-biased interpretation is that they eventually made the play correct, as Lance Moore was able to maintain possession until he was ruled “down.” It may not be the letter of the rule, but the rules that define possession have always been murky.

Tracy Porter, meanwhile, made a career for himself this post-season. He intercepted Brett Favre’s last pass (of the career season) and made Peyton Manning look stupid. He actually did a “bad” thing on the interception, as he broke coverage to jump the route. It’s the same thing that Asante Samuel does that raises my blood pressure.

So kudos to the Saints. I’m not sure that this “makes up” for Katrina, but it certainly gives a city a good thing to celebrate. Between this and Mardi Gras, we can expect a city-wide funeral procession on Wednesday.

A short note regarding M&D. This will likely be one of the last football-based posts until next year, as we are shifting our focus to baseball. If you want more M&D goodness, check back in a few days to see a link to our new blog.

Former FEMA Chief Weighs in on the Super Bowl

http://www.politico.com/click/stories/1002/brownie_goes_for_colts_over_saints.html

So one of the (many) overwrought backstories to this year’s Super Bowl is how meaningful a Saints victory will be in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. I can believe it, and I’m rooting for the Saints this weekend (I almost always root NFC).

That being said, if you were Michael Brown, and a reporter asked you to go on record with your Super Bowl pick, WHY IN THE HELL WOULD YOU PICK AGAINST THE SAINTS?! This is political suicide on the level of Martha Coakley calling Curt Schilling a Yankee fan. Michael Brown’s gaffe is likely only  slightly less relevant to socialized health care.

In other Saints news, I present a screenshot from the Weather Channel.

oooookkkkayyyy…maybe not the most tasteful picture on the internet right now (but certainly not the least).

~M

Pro Bowl?! Who Watches the Pro Bowl?!

In short, I do.

First, some housecleaning. There will likely be some changes at M&D. We don’t quite know what, but we will be experimenting with various formats and such during the off-season. We may ever start a sister-site focused on baseball. WE JUST DON’T KNOW! This website is all about fun, for both the reader and the writer, and lately it’s gotten too big and unwieldy to stay that way.  We are gonna try to find some ways to trim down the fat.

So what was I talking about the Pro Bowl? Yeah…We all broke down and watched it last night. Dave and Kyle watched pretty much the entire game. I came in about halfway through the second quarter. We were all losers.

We all agreed that the Pro Bowl is probably the worst of all the “All-Star Games.” All the other big sports turn their games out in the middle of the season, something that is impractical in the NFL. The elephant in the room, the one that nobody in the NFL wants to talk about, is the fact players just don’t care about playing in the Pro Bowl. In today’s NFL, players aren’t going to risk their multimillion dollar bodies in what amounts to a publicity stunt. Personally, I think the new format actually HELPS interest. Play the game the week before the Super Bowl, and market the hell out of it. Eventually, people might start to give a shit. (UPDATE: Looks like the NFL already moved it back for next year. Guess this all was a one year thing. I knew they were moving it back to Hawaii, but I had missed the date)

If people still don’t watch, then the NFL should take solace in history. Has the Pro Bowl ever been exciting for adults? Maybe the NFL just needs to cut the pretense and market the game for kids. I seem to remember watching a game when I was 8 or 9 years old, and being absolutely amazed at how awesome the concept was. I watched quarterbacks Jeff Blake and Steve Bono  give the ball to AFC luminaries Kimble Anders and Yancey Thigpen . It was a different time! These were the absolute best of the best, and their accomplishments stood the test of time.

Something to think about when you remember the legacy of David Gerrard and Yeremiah Bell.

Media Mayhem! – Marshall Does Dallas Edition

First off, the question you internet lackeys all want to know. Where are our picks? Well, they are there, you just didn’t look hard enough. We coded this site so that the only people who could read them were the ones who were truly worthy. I guess you weren’t worthy.

(Seriously though, we did them, and I swear we made picks on Friday. We made picks, but didn’t write a post cause I fell asleep in front of the TV.)

First, lets talk about the quote that you knew was going to piss me off.

Tony Romo has finally (come-of-age/matured/put on his big-boy pants) and will (certainly/definitely/God-willing) lead his team to the (Super Bowl/promised land/Valhalla). He was so (clutch/gritty/dreamy) as he lead his team to victory in the 4th quarter.

-(Peter/Jon/Tim)(King/Gruden/McMahon)

I realize this isn’t actually a quote, it’s a crudely designed Mad-Lib and a juvenile attempt at humor. But it is also pretty much what every horrible football writer is saying today. It was bound to happen sooner or later, the gushing man-love for Tony Romo. Eventually, Dallas was going to come out of their hibernation, look around, and decide to win a football game. It’s a talented team, no doubt about it, but Tony Romo had about as much to do with their eventual victory as Nick Folk did. Yes, Nick Folk nearly cost them the game, but eventually that mistake didn’t matter. Just as Tony Romo’s play didn’t matter in the 4th quarter.

Really, all it comes down to is the concept of clutch. I may adhere to the stats-head opinion on most things, but I happen to believe that there are players in football who play better in key situations. Call it what you will: “clutch,” “shifting-into-an-extra-gear,” “making-making-a-pact-with-the-dark-lord;” I believe it exists. Peyton Manning has it. Larry Fitzgerald has it. Adrian Peterson had it, but seems to have lost it at the Phoenix airport. “It” is a hard thing to define, but a team that does not score any points in the 4th quarter does not ooze “it”.

This is part of a wider-spread problem. Not to exhume a dead horse’s corpse here, but remember back when every color commentator was bringing up that list of Favre’s “4th quarter game-winning or -tying drives?” That ambiguous “stat” was used non-stop to show just how CLUTCH the Crossword King is. The truth to that stat was that many of those “drives” were 3-and-outs that just happened to be in field goal range. Or the drive ended with like 14:51 left in the game. That’s not clutch, and Romo was not clutch on Sunday. Romo got to watch on the bench, like everyone else, while his defense almost coughed up a 21 point lead. Then Romo drove down the field, had his drive stall,  then held for Nick Folk as he Suisham’d the field goal. Argue all you want about field position and momentum, DaMarcus Ware was the real hero in that game.

Roethlisberger. Now there is a boy who is CLUTCH.

Week 7: Hail Britannia!

Game 1: New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Marsh: PATRIOTS – The coin for this game was supplied by a friend, and to honor the game, the coin was a one-pound coin from Jolly Old England. What it failed to realize is that New England is the far superior team.

Dave: PATRIOTS – I’ll spare you my thoughts on whether or not the NFL should be sending teams to play games in London (they shouldn’t) and simply comment that the Patriots looked like the 2007 Patriots last week, which means that Tampa Bay is about to get annihilated.

Kyle: – BUCCANEERS

Coin: BUCCANEERS

Game 2: Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns

Marsh: PACKERS – The Browns are just simply depressing. Derek Anderson IMPROVED his season’s QB rating to 41.7 with last week’s bomber of a game. Don’t take anything away from the Packers, however, as their team is doing it’s job at locking down opposing offenses.

Dave: PACKERS – It’s possible the Browns could win this game. I mean, for all we know, some Browns fan somewhere has been developing time travel and is about to bring Bernie Kosar from 1987 to play quarterback in this game. Let’s face it, 1987 Kosar would be a massive upgrade.

Kyle: – PACKERS

Coin: BROWNS

Game 3: San Francisco 49ers @ Houston Texans

Marsh: TEXANS – The NFL’s best kept secret at this moment is Matt Schaub. Granted, a lot of his credit should be shifted to his receivers, but Schaub is quietly putting together one hell of a season. Meanwhile, the 49ers may be starting Michael Crabtree. This can only end in tears…

Dave: TEXANS – Just when I was ready to believe that San Francisco was for real, they get stomped by Atlanta, making me think the Niners are merely your run-of-the-mill, below average football team. The Texans are one of those too, but they’re the home team.

Kyle: – 49ERS

Coin: TEXANS

Game 4: Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Marsh:  VIKINGS – It appears that I have become somewhat of a homer in the regard to my Vikings picks. I just can’t help it, cause they are one of the most exciting teams to watch in the NFL when everybody is playing at the top of their game.

Dave: VIKINGS – Last year, this would’ve been wishful thinking, but with this year’s Viking offense firing on all Brett Favre cylinders, and the Steelers being good, but not THAT good, I’m confident that the Vikings are the better team here.

Kyle: VIKINGS

Coin: STEELERS

Game 5: Indianapolis Colts @ St. Louis Rams

Marsh: COLTS – I read somewhere that the Colts have set a Vegas record for the most lopsided road favorite ever. I think that says about all that needs to be said about this game. Colts = Good. Rams = Bad.

Dave: COLTS – It’s a bird! It’s a plane! No! It’s another Peyton Manning touchdown pass!

Kyle: COLTS –

Coin: COLTS

Game 6: San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Marsh: CHARGERS – This week is just full of apparent blowouts. I think that this game has the best chance of not being a blowout, both because of the NORV factor and the fact that the Chiefs seem to actually be improving.

Dave: CHARGERS – I guess this is a trap game, but the Chiefs have a way of giving the illusion of improvement. They’re still a bad team, and if the Chargers find a way to lose this one, I will refer to them as the San Diego Epic Failers for the remainder of the season.

Kyle: CHIEFS –

Coin: CHARGERS

Game 7: Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers

Marsh: BILLS –

Dave: PANTHERS – It doesn’t seem right that the Panthers will be 3-3 with a win, but here they are. I file games like this under “Bad Team vs. Bad Team,” and all games filed there are considered to be completely unpredictable. That’s why I generally default to the home team.

Kyle: BILLS –

Coin: BILLS

Game 8: New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders

Marsh: JETS –

Dave: JETS – The Raiders just beat the Philadelphia Eagles. Does this mean they’re going to see massive improvement for the remainder of the season? Um… no.

Kyle: JETS –

Coin: RAIDERS

Game 9: Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys

Marsh: FALCONS –

Dave: FALCONS – The Cowboys have not been impressing me in the slightest. On paper, Romo distributing passes to guys like Witten and Crayton combined with the rushing attack of Barber and Jones should be more than enough to compensate for a lackluster defense. In practice, Romo’s lack of ball security only exacerbates the defense’s lackluster…ness.

Kyle: FALCONS –

Coin: FALCONS

Game 10: Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals

Marsh: BENGALS –

Dave: BENGALS – This pick effectively acknowledges that the Bengals are an average team, no more, no less. Average teams lose to bad teams once in a while, and average teams beat good teams once in a while. In this case, I’m beginning to see the Bears as an average team also, meaning that the home team, in this case Cincinnati, emerges victorious.

Kyle: BEARS –

Coin: BENGALS

Game 11: New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins

Marsh: SAINTS –

Dave: SAINTS – The Dolphins must have heard me when I parodied that the Wildcat wasn’t working anymore, because not only is it working, it’s working to great success. The problem is that even if it works to great success against the Saints, Miami will still lose as a result of Drew Brees reducing the Dolphins defense to tears.

Kyle: SAINTS –

Coin: DOLPHINS

Game 12: New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals

Marsh: CARDINALS –

Dave: GIANTS – I’m standing by my assessments of these teams from the beginning, which are that the Giants are a very good team, and the Cardinals are a team that had a fluke Super Bowl run last year and is bound to regress to mediocrity. With that said, the Giants win this game handily.

Kyle: GIANTS –

Coin: GIANTS

Game 13: Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles

Marsh: EAGLES –

Dave: EAGLES – It’s the battle of the Washington Redskins and the Philadelphia Logic-Defiers! That’s right, it seems like two or three times a year, Philadelphia plays a game that totally runs counter to what anybody would have expected. However, since the nature of the Logic-Defiers is that predicting their logic defying is a fool’s errand, the best course of action is to pick them to win when they should and accept the reality that they will defy logic every once in a while.

Kyle: REDSKINS –

Coin: EAGLES

(Extra note: Yes, this is late. We failed in our mission. Woe be unto us.)

Week 6: Back in the Swing of Things

Game 1: Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals

Marsh: TEXANS – The Bengals might be real, but I sure as hell ain’t picking them. Look at their victories, and pick one that you think they were actually supposed to win?  Green Bay had a fake Lambeau Leap, Pittsburgh lacked some Polamalu, and Baltimore had monstrous penalties. There are two games they were supposed to win. Cleveland in reality should have been a tie, as Carson Palmer had to de-pussify Marvin Lewis. Meanwhile, the Denver game was one miracle from another victory. Plain and simple, this is not a good team, and I won’t pick them unless they straight up dominate somebody.

Dave: BENGALS – A battle of mediocre teams, but while I don’t see Cincinnati as a team that’s a serious contender, the Texans have a way of losing games like this, especially on the road.

Kyle: BENGALS

Coin: BENGALS

Game 2: Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers

Marsh: PACKERS – The Packers lured Mark Tauscher out of de-facto retirement to try and resolve their protection woes, and luckily this is the perfect game for them to solve them.

Dave: PACKERS – Close your eyes. Imagine a game where Calvin Johnson dominates… where Aaron Rodgers lands face down on the turf over and over again… where Kevin Smith conjures up memories of Barry Sanders… where the Lions defeat the Green Bay Packers. …OK, I couldn’t imagine it either.

Kyle: PACKERS

Coin: LIONS

Game 3: Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings

Marsh: VIKINGS – My pick for game of the week. Both teams essentially do the same thing, they both run very well, and they both have nacent passing games with suburb defense. Something will break, but it should be close.

Dave: VIKINGS – The Vikings face their toughest opponent yet in the Baltimore Ravens, whose defense hasn’t been quite as good as advertised this year, which is one way of saying that the Ravens have a really good defense. The offense doesn’t appear bad either, but with the running game likely to struggle against the Williams Wall, it’ll be too much for Joe Flacco and the passing game to produce the necessary points.

Kyle: VIKINGS

Coin: RAVENS

Game 4: New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints

Marsh: SAINTS – Game of the week, part deux. Meanwhile, in New Orleans, we will have two teams that do EXACTLY the opposite of each other. Giants are a possession oriented team, winning with the running game and defense. New Orleans puts points on the board faster than I forget about a post. I picked the Saints simply because the Giants secondary is screwed.

Dave: SAINTS – The most difficult game to pick this year so far. For the record, I see the Giants as a better team at this point, but New Orleans is the home team, so they get my pick. If nothing else, this is a great litmus test to see if the Saints defense is for real or not.

Kyle: GIANTS

Coin: GIANTS

Game 5: Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Marsh: STEELERS – Ugh.

Dave: STEELERS – Smash.

Kyle: BROWNS

Coin: STEELERS

Game 6: Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Marsh: PANTHERS – I will gladly take the veteran team over the one starting Josh Johnson. Tampa Bay’s defense won’t be a factor.

Dave: BUCCANEERS – I wince as I pick Tampa Bay. I fear I will soon come to regret it.

Kyle: BUCCANEERS

Coin: PANTHERS

Game 7: Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins

Marsh: CHIEFS – Sorry Kyle, but the Redskins have used up all of their currency with me.

Dave: REDSKINS – One would think the Redskins would at least be able to win this game with relative ease. One would think…

Kyle: REDSKINS

Coin: REDSKINS

Game 8: St. Louis Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Marsh: JAGUARS –This game looks to be incredibly plodding. Lots of dumpoffs and ineffective runs up the gut. BTW, WTF has happened to MJD? (ACRONYM OVERLOAD)

Dave: JAGUARS – So, want to know how to make the Jaguars look like a really, really good team?

Kyle: RAMS

Coin: RAMS

Game 9: Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

Marsh: CARDINALS – Seattle dominated last week, so OBVIOUSLY they won’t play nearly as well this week.

Dave: SEAHAWKS –The Seahawks are maddeningly inconsistent, and inconsistent teams have a tendency to finish closer to 8-8. Unfortunately for Arizona, 8-8 teams playing at home beat them.

Kyle: CARDINALS

Coin: SEAHAWKS

Game 10: Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders

Marsh: EAGLES – When does the regular season start again? Oh wait…the Raiders are THAT bad?

Dave: EAGLES – In this week’s edition of Philadelphia Eagles football, the Eagles attempt to escape Oakland without being struck by the blight of depravity that has swept throughout the Raiders organization. I hear it’s somewhat like a plague.

Kyle: IGGLES

Coin: EAGLES

Game 11: Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots

Marsh: PATRIOTS – We all know how bad the Titans are, and we all know how good Belicheck is. So lets just leave it at that.

Dave: PATRIOTS – What to make of the Patriots? They still seem to be a good team at least, but hardly the dominant force they were for much of this decade. This week, however, they are just another step down the road of the Titans’ terrible, horrible, no good, very bad season.

Kyle: TITANS

Coin: PATRIOTS

Game 12: Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Marsh: JETS –Sanchez, like Icarus has flown to close to the sun and is now tumbling back to Earth. I hope that he delays that action enough to beat the Rams.

Dave: JETS –As strange as it is to say, I could see the Bills giving the Jets a really difficult game here. This is mostly based on a belief that the Jets are a mediocre team, and mediocre teams are often vulnerable. Let’s not forget that Buffalo nearly defeated New England… oh, come on, what the hell am I doing? Of course the Jets will win this game.

Kyle: BILLS

Coin: BILLS

Game 13: Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons

Marsh: FALCONS – Did people get so enamored with the Jay Cutler trade that they forgot what kind of QB he was? Strangely inconsistent with a trwinge of Brett Favre?

Dave:  BEARS – I’m picking the Bears in a jinx effort. The Falcons are a difficult team to peg in that they seem to look either underwhelming or dominant. I see neither happening here, as I believe it will be a close matchup, but I see the Bears as just good enough to win on the road.

Kyle: FALCONS

Coin: FALCONS

Game 14: Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers

Marsh: CHARGERS – RIVERRRRRRZZZZZ…

Dave: CHARGERS – That’s right! I am doubting the Denver Broncos ONE MORE TIME! Sing it with me… San Diego… SUPERCHARGERS…

Kyle: BRONCOS

Coin: BRONCOS

Week 4 Results: No Thoughts and Musings This Week

After a week of reasons involving work schedules, job opportunities, free time and general forgetfulness regarding the site, there will be no T&M post this week. Sorry for the inconvenience. The results are as follows:

Feel free to spend the week doing more productive things. We will be back on Saturday.

M&D NFL Preview: Buffalo Bills

TO is here! Get your popcorn ready! TO is here! Blech…before we go any further, let me just say that this article is going to test my journalistic neutrality, as Terrell Owens is my least favorite human being on the planet (as an Eagles fan, we all had to sign a contract). Alas, here it goes.

Terrell Owens will not save the Bills, nor is it likely make them anything resembling watchable. Simply put, the Bills offensive line is in absolute shambles. Their line, which wasn’t that great to begin with, lost their only certifiable star, Jason Peters, via a trade resulting from a contract dispute (who I am happy to say, signed with the Eagles). The team also cut the semi-disappointing guard Derrick Dockery, who was at one time the highest paid player on the team. The Bills did use their picks from Philly on two lineman, Eric Wood and Andy Levitre, and both are expected to contribute immediately. This means that the Buffalo Bills will likely have an offensive line consisting of (from left to right) Langston Walker, Levitre, Geoff Hangartner, Wood, and Brad Butler. In other words, Trent Edwards is going to be looking up from his back quite a bit.

On the other side of the ball, the defense is just as mediocre as ever, and very little has been done to improve it. Their only real pass rusher is Aaron Schobel, and when he went down with ankle trouble last year, the whole Buffalo team went down with him. Defensive Coordinator Perry Fewell hopes to resolve this situation by using rookie Aaron Maybin out of Penn State. Although this completes their desire to have symmetry by having two starting defensive ends named “Aaron,”  Maybin is considered too small to be effective against the run, so the collective opinion is that he is a situational pass rusher at this point in his young career. The rest of the defense is full of promising young players, albeit those that for various reasons, haven’t lived up to their potential. If all of their young players and aging veterans gel, than the defense could surprise this year, but history suggests that they will struggle.

The question to ask when predicting the Bills is “What is more likely?” Is it more likely that the Bills will suddenly channel their late eighties incarnation, and start putting up 60 points a game? Or is it more likely that they sustain their current run of mediocrity, because they made so few moves during the off season to revamp a plodding offense and a ho-hum defense? Call me crazy, but I’ll go with the latter.

• Predicted Record: 6-10
• Offseason Gains: WR Terrell Owens, CB Drayton Florence
• Offseason Losses: LT Jason Peters, TE Robert Royal, QB J. P. Losman
• Dave’s Notes: It’s unlikely, but don’t be shocked if this is the year Owens’s production falls off the face of the earth. Arguably no position in football is more dependent on the production of others than wide receiver. See: Moss, Randy. So if Trent Edwards struggles, and it’s likely he will, and Owens shows his age, we could see him produce a 500 yard stinker of a season. Again, it’s unlikely, but I’ll put it this way: I wouldn’t draft Owens in fantasy football this year. As for Buffalo, what are they thinking? The Owens signing was the most bizarre move of the offseason. Teams don’t improve because of wide receivers (see: Lions, Detroit). They’re complementary parts, and not even necessary to win championships (see: Patriots, New England). For a team with so many glaring holes, the Owens signing screams “desperate attempt to sell season tickets and not have to leave Buffalo.”

M&D NFL Preview: Baltimore Ravens

So hey, remember that time, way back when, when the Baltimore Ravens won a Super Bowl? Anybody remember how they did it? Basically, the 2000 Ravens were able to parlay a dominant defense and an above average rushing attack into a NFL Championship, despite having the Rent-A-Mentor himself, Trent Dilfer, at quarterback. See, what made that team so great wasn’t the fact that they overpowered the opposing team, but that they simply didn’t make any mistakes. Trent Dilfer was never asked to do something he couldn’t do, and if they ran into trouble, they would just punt. Somewhere along the line, Brian Billick lost sight of what made him successful (or perhaps he felt he needed to justify the offensive “genius” label that was bestowed on him).

New head coach John Harbaugh looked back at what made this team great in 2000 and went through his checklist. Outstanding defense? Check? Strong rushing attack? Check. Game managing quarterback? Check, in a sense, but only after a series of events that forced the Ravens to rush Joe Flacco…a move that worked out pretty damn good in the end. The rest, as they say, was history. The Ravens went 11-5, captured and AFC Wild Card spot, and had a showdown with their AFC North rival Steelers in the championship game.

Before we delve into the Ravens ’09 chances, let me make one thing implicitly clear: Joe Flacco is WAY better than Trent Dilfer ever was. However, the Ravens did the smart thing last year and eased their young QB into the offense.  Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron simplified the offensive scheme, and as a result, Flacco threw more than 30 passes in just three games, and those were loaded with comeback routes and out plays. One might expect that the training wheels will come off at some point this season, but should they really? The Ravens running game should be just as dominant, and one would expect that Harbaugh and Cameron wouldn’t want to throw Flacco to the wolves just yet, not with those wide receivers.

So what I am proposing isn’t revolutionary, but the Ravens have historically shown success running a conservative offense. just keep in mind, Flacco is way better than Dilfer, not just as a game manager, but as an overall quarterback, and if the Ravens ever get around to picking up some fast wideouts, the strong-armed and accurate Flacco could be one of the most statistically dominant quarterbacks in the league. But not just yet, Ravens, let that defense win games for you.

• Predicted Record: 9-7
• Offseason Gains: TE L.J. Smith, CB Dominique Foxworth, C Matt Birk
• Offseason Losses: LB Bart Scott, CB Chris McAlister, DC Rex Ryan
• Dave’s Notes: The Ravens did some quirky things last year, particularly with their offense, featuring fullback LeRon McClain as the featured runner often, as well as unleashing the unbalanced offensive line. This helped create an environment where Baltimore could help ease in Mr. Flacco, with solid if unspectacular results. Still, when you run an offense this way, it effectively caps how explosive it is. It’s a low-risk, low-reward system, and running things that way may get you into the playoffs, but it’s extremely difficult to win a Super Bowl like that. Yes, the 2000 Ravens pulled it off, but did so with very little margin for error (actual Super Bowl that year notwithstanding). So, here’s the question: do the Ravens take off the kid gloves and see what their new, shiny Flacco can do, risking a crash, or do they continue to play it safe and win the same way?

M&D NFL Preview: Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons went 11-5 last year. Nobody would have held it against them if they went 5-11. Between Michael Vick’s well publicized legal troubles and Bobby Petrino’s disappearing act, the 2008 Falcons had every right to feel demoralized, cheated and abandoned. A funny thing happened though, Owner Arthur Blank and GM Thomas Dimitroff took a chance on Matt Ryan, who they saw as a franchise-level quarterback who could make Hot-Lanta forget about Vick. On top of Ryan, they hired no-nonsense coach Mike Smith and picked up free agent beau Michael Turner, formally from San Diego. This all represented an effort to build a team with one thing in mind: stability.

An even funnier thing began to happen, once Atlanta abandoned its flash-and-dash ways, they began to win games. Matt Ryan’s first regular season pass, a 62-yard TD strike, rejuvenated the team, and hopefully showed a sign of the things to come. John Abraham, one of the truly underrated defensive ends in the NFL, became and absolute terror to opposing quarterbacks. Micheal “Burner” Turner shrugged off the criticism that he would always be a backup by turning in a 1600 yard breakout season. All of this led to a Wild Card berth and a hard fought loss against the NFC Champion Cardinals. For once, the Falcons would not be defined by Michael Vick’s personal failures.

What does all of this mean going forward? Well, although Atlanta’s 2008 was certainly surprising, it is a little difficult to expect a repeat of last season’s successes. The offense should remain good, although Michael Turner’s overuse leads to question about his durability and effectiveness this year (go to Football Outsiders and read about the rule of 370 for more info). The defense, however, could use an influx of talent. John Abraham, he of 16.5 sacks, was very effective and rushing the passer last year, but many agree that his overaggressive play led to many difficulties against the run. Abraham is still one of the best in the league, and one would assume that head coach Mike Smith will do his best to work out any problems. However, injuries and old age is costing the Falcons in their secondary, as they must now rely on “crafty” veterans and unproven rookies to defend against the NFC South’s collective passing attack.

One thing is for sure, with Matt Ryan and Roddy White, the Atlanta Falcons finally have an identity again. Their moral successes and  on-field play surprised quite a few people last year, but it remains to be seen if they can repeat the year they had last year. Conventional wisdom would say yes, but I have a tendency to look a little deeper. What I see is a great team in the NFC South, albeit one that still has a rickety foundation.  I predict the rickety-ness will shine through.

• Predicted Record: 8-8
• Offseason Gains: LB Mike Peterson, DT Peria Jerry, TE Tony Gonzales
• Offseason Losses: CB Dominique Foxworth, LB Michael Booley, LB Keith Brooking
• Dave’s Notes: The NFC South is the AL Central of football: no team is outstanding, but all four could win the division title. That having been said, the Falcons have no margin for error, as they got career years out of both Roddy White and Michael Turner, as well as an outstanding rookie campaign from Matt Ryan, a case of “everything going right”. Moreover, much of the passing game’s success was based on the offense being built around the running game, and if the dreaded Curse of 370 rears its ugly head, opposing defenses will key in on the Ryan-to-White connection. If everything goes right again, we could see a return trip to the playoffs for the Falcons.