Somehow, amidst all of the poor pitching performances and golden sombreros, the NL Central was competitive last year. The division formerly known as “Comedy” Central always had it’s front-runner in the Cubs and it’s wanna-be front-runner in the Brewers, but a  surprisingly solid season from the Cardinals and a phyrric effort from the Astros gave us a little late-season drama. However, all was not well in the division, as both the Reds and the Pirates finished with records that were somewhere between mediocre and wretched. Looking at this coming season, not much will change at the top (the Cubs are still the best team in the National League…on paper), but several free agent losses look to make this the least competitive division in baseball.

Chicago Cubs: Make no qualms about it; all roads to the playoffs in the Central go through Chicago’s North side. This was true last year, and it is even more true this coming season. Last year, there was little doubt who would win the division from pretty much the start of the season. The Cubbies enjoyed remarkable regular season success (97 wins), but chinks in their armor started to develop in September. Arm soreness for Big Z, a poor season from Japanese import Kosuke Fukudome, and a downright disappointing season from Derrek Lee all led up to a sweep at the hands of Dave’s Dodgers in the NLDS. And the century of curses continued for the Cubs. On this, the 101st anniversary of their last World Series victory, the Cubs have a good chance of getting there. They won’t find much competition in their own division, but the Cubs have probably the deepest roster of any team in the National League, and should be able to use it to great effect. The time is now, because beyond this season, the Cubs are going to come with a lot of questions. Will Fukudome be a waste of money? Will Zambrano’s arm troubles become chronic? Who will start in center field?  Can Rich Harden stay healthy? Find out the answers this season.

• Players on the Rise: C Geovany Soto, 3B Josh Vitters, SP Sean Marshall
• Players in Decline: 1B Derrek Lee, OF Alfonso Soriano, SP Ted Lilly
• Projected Divisional Rank: 1st
• Dave’s Thoughts: I suppose Cubs fans can be forgiven for believing that last season, the 100th since their latest World Series victory, would be a magical one for Chicago, resulting in a Cubs championship. Unfortunately, reality is a cruel mistress. What their first round sweep at the hands of the Dodgers illustrates is that the playoffs are essentially random: it’s such a small number of games that a couple of bad breaks can send you packing.

Cincinnati Reds: Well, it was a good idea at the time. I am referring to, of course, the multi-million dollar contract for baseball’s prodigal son, Ken Griffey Jr. After eight-and-a-half somewhat inglorious and injury filled seasons, Griffey had to call it quits on the Reds, eventually leading to a trade that made him a White Sock. Cincy followed this controversial move up by trading their other aging superstar, Adam Dunn, to Arizona. Looking down the road, it is easy to see why. Dunn and Griffey were both becoming defensive liabilities, and the bevy of young talent coming up to the big club made them both expendable. So what does this mean for the Reds going forward? Well, expect them to rely heavily on their pitching (four solid starters in Harang, Arroyo, Cueto and Volquez) and their emerging talent (Encarnacion, Phillips and Votto). All of this is wishful thinking, because although they have some decent prospects to play around with, the holes in their squad are numerous. Their bullpen is still comprised of mostly replacement-level players, and the rest of their offense will likely struggle to score runs. The Reds were financially unable last year to start any sort of rebulding effort, but they won’t have that handicap this season.

• Players on the Rise: 1B Joey Votto, SP Edinson Volquez, 3B Edwin Encarnacion
• Players in Decline: SS Jerry Hairston, CL Francisco Cordero, SS/2B Jeff Keppinger
• Projected Divisional Rank: 4th
• Dave’s Thoughts: What’s always killed Cincinnati isn’t the lack of top talent, since last year they had Volquez and four months of Dunn, it’s the employment of players who don’t belong. Why Dusty Baker gave Corey Patterson so many chances last year is a mystery the answer to which the world may never know.

Houston Astros: You have to hand it to Ed Wade. At the start of the season, nobody in baseball would have predicted that the Astros would have finished just four games out of the NL Wild Card. However, while Wade remained competitive this year, he did so at the cost of his team’s long term future. Wade started the year by giving a bounty of prospects to Baltimore for superstar shortstop Miguel Tejada. While Tejada came with good pedigree, his numbers failed to meet up with expectations, posting career lows in many offensive categories. This mistake was compounded by Tejada’s midseason confession that he lied about his age, aging instantly and adding credence that the Dominican is reaching the end of his career. Two days after the Tejada trade, Ed Wade gave Arizona three more prospects for their closer, Jose Valverde. You may be asking, “If the immediate returns on these trade weren’t that great, how did Houston become so competitive?.” The answer is simple: career years from Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee, decent pitching and a whole helluva lot of luck. Now the eyes of Houston turn to 2009, and what hopes lie in wait for them. Well, sorry to disappoint, but Houston had one of the worst minor league systems in the majors going into last year, and the trades for Tejada and Valverde did not do much to help matters. The results of which have left Houston to pick among the carcasses of minor league retreads, players with significant holes in their game, and former first rounders with injury history. Sorry Astros fans, but you are rooting for one of the worst teams in the majors.

• Players on the Rise: uhh…wow…lets go with catcher J.R Towles, but that is only because its hard to go down from “abysmal”
• Players in Decline: It might just be easier to name who isn’t, but here it goes: SS Miguel Tejada, OF Carlos Lee, 1B Lance Berkman, SP Roy Oswalt, 2B Kaz Matsui, INF Mark Loretta
• Projected Divisional Rank: 6th
• Dave’s Thoughts: Part of me was rooting for Houston last September as they launched an improbable comeback into contention. The other part of me was smiling, knowing that the Astros were effectively launching themselves out of contention for the next few years. Memo to Houston: the best MLB franchises always have an eye looking towards the future.

Milwaukee Brewers: It was certainly an uneven season for the Brew Crew. Through much of April and May, they were playing like a .500 team, just getting enough done to end May with a 28-28 record. Much press time was giving to the apparent power shortage from the Brewers young stars, Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. Slowly and steadily though, the team began to win games. The pitching started to gel, and the bats started to get hot again. All of a sudden, the Brewers were in the wild card hunt, and the movers and shakers of the organization made quite possibly the most influential deadline deal of the past decade. To aid their rotation, which up until that point had consisted mostly of Ben Sheets and Manny Parra, the Brewers sent slugging prospect Matt LaPorta and three others to Cleveland, netting them the big man himself: C.C. Sabathia. Although Sabathia strugged in Cleveland up to that point, he really hit a stride when he entered the senior circuit, winning his first three starts and not losing a game until September. The Brewers had the NL Wild Card in hand until September, when Ned Yost decided that he had better make things interesting, and the team proceeded to begin September with a 4-15 stretch. Yost was then fired, and in came interim head coach Dale Sveum (I cough a loogy every time I say his name). The Brewers made the playoffs, and lost in the NLDS at the hands of the eventual World Champion Phillies. Nevertheless, it was the first time in 26 years that the Brewers made the playoffs, so it is hard to label the season as anything other than a success. Looking forward, they have a lot of middling talent that should become everyday Major-Leaguers, but they just don’t have that eye-popping prospect in their system that would have huge impact. This shouldn’t matter, since with Fielder, Braun, and shortstop J.J. Hardy there are plenty of young players for fans to cheer on. Don’t be surprised if the Brewers are able to contend for the division title.

• Players on the Rise: SP Yovani Gallardo, 2B Rickie Weeks
• Players in Decline: CL Trevor Hoffman, SP Dave Bush, SP Jeff Suppan, 3B Bill Hall
• Projected Divisional Rank: 2nd
• Dave’s Thoughts: The Brewers are a great example of a team that was mediocre or worse for a long time that built themselves into a contender primarily with the minor league system. While teams like Houston keep trying to make one last run at glory by hitting the free agent market, the Brewers, by staying patient and drafting and developing well, have built themselves into a team that should be a dangerous one for years to come.

Pittsburgh Pirates: You’ll have to excuse me if I sound like a homer, but the Pirates, after 16 years of bad trades, poor play and relative futility,  finally seem to be headed in the right direction. Last season’s record might not reflect that, as they went 67-95 after a particularly brutal August. Midseason trades of Jason Bay, Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte netted the Bucs eight players of varying note and ability, and provided their minor league systems with very valuable depth. The issues with this club are numerous. The rotation, expected to be solid going into last year, took a gigantic step backward, culminating in a National League-worst Runs Against (5.46 Runs per 9).  The offense however, had a bit of help from some unexpected sources, CF Nate McLouth and C Ryan Doumit. Both of those players signed extensions with the team in February, so they look to be contributing for a while. While there were glimmers of hope in the big club,  the biggest news out of the Steel City last year was the signing of Vanderbilt’s slugging third baseman, Pedro Alvarez. Alvarez was thought by many to be the best player in the draft, with a rare combination of power and contact. What is more impressive, at least in the eyes of longtime Pittsburgh fans, is that the Pirates actually paid to keep him there, rather than take the cheap way out (see 2007 : Moskos, Daniel). Although the contract negotiations got messy, his eventual signing represented a true shift in priorities of the ownership. They may not have had much success this season, but the new ownership has shown it can make tough decisions to make this a winning ball club again.  As a Pirates fan, I certainly hope that this continues to be the case.

• Players on the Rise: 3B Andy LaRoche, CF Nate McLouth, OF Andrew McCutchen, SP Paul Maholm
• Players in Decline: 2B Freddy Sanchez, SS Jack Wilson, OF Eric Hinske
• Predicted Divisional Rank: 5th
• Dave’s Thoughts: A lot of Pirates fans think that their team hasn’t changed at all, viewing last season’s trades of Bay, Nady, and Marte as penny pinching. The difference is this: the previous regime, led by Dave Littlefield, had a tendency to trade for mediocre or worse veterans (case in point: Matt Morris). Current GM Neal Huntington, on the other hand, acquired real prospects, landing potential future stars such as Andy LaRoche and Jose Tabata.

St. Louis Cardinals: Last year, the Cardinals had regular season success that resembled that of their divisional foe, the Houston Astros. Both teams had veteran players that fueled an unexpectedly successful season, and continued to win despite mediocre pitching. The comparisons end, however, with how far each team was willing to pursue that goal. At the trading deadline, Tony La Russa and the rest of their management realized that they were not going to make the playoffs, and as such, did not sell the house to bring in free agent rentals. Rather, they took a measured approach, supplementing their minor league system with the draft, and continuing to let their players develop. The result of this approach is that they likely have the deepest system in the NL Central, which usually means sustained success, rather than a one-year fluke season. Going into 2009, there is plenty to look forward to in the Gateway City. First and formost, reigning MVP Albert Pujols is actually healthy now, and considering he hit .357/.462/.653 with a bad elbow, one wonders what damage he can do without trouble in that joint. There is also plenty of people to watch on the rotation, as Chris Carpenter is returning from injury and Adam Wainwright should have another fine season. Expect their top prospect, Colby Rasmus, to make an appearance too, as there is no reason he shouldn’t be their starting center fielder out of camp.  There are plenty of question marks, though. Besides Pujols, there isn’t a lot of power in the line up. In addition, their bullpen was easily the worst in the majors last year, and not much was done in the offseason to alleviate that problem. There aren’t going to be too many expectations for this team out of the gate, but all that they need is a hot streak, and it’s not a stretch to imagine them taking the NL Wild Card.

• Players on the Rise: SP Adam Wainwright, CL Chris Perez, C Yadier Molina
• Players in Decline: 3B Troy Glaus, C Jason LaRue, OF Ryan Ludwick
• Predicted Divisional Rank: 3rd
• Dave’s Thoughts: Replace Pujols with, say, a merely good first baseman, such as Derrek Lee or Nick Johnson. What do the Cardinals become then? Missouri’s version of the Seattle Mariners. This is a stars and scrubs team that gets away with it because their top star happens to be the best hitter in the game.

Coming up next: The AL East: How will the big boys fare?